Those who do not protect their assets now, at risk simply not to have time.
Quantum computers have not yet become an everyday tool, but for the cryptocurrency market, their development already looks like a countdown timer. A new report from Project Eleven warns that the moment when such machines can open up today’s cryptography may come faster than many industry participants expected.
The authors of the report call such a system a cryptographically important quantum computer. The day of its appearance was called Q-Day. After this point, protection schemes on which blockchains, digital assets and other public key systems are held will be at risk.
According to Project Eleven, Q-Day is likely to occur by 2033, and with the acceleration of current trends - about 2030. It is not about a single breakthrough, but about the addition of several factors at once: the growth of quality and the number of physical qubits, progress in quantum error correction and reduction of requirements for resources due to new algorithmic approaches.
The report provides fresh examples of such acceleration. Google Willow Processor on 105 qubits showed an important result in the correction of quantum errors. Other work by Google Quantum AI and Stanford has reduced the estimate of the resources needed to crack down on elliptical cryptography that protects Bitcoin and a significant part of the digital asset ecosystem. According to the authors, about 1200 logic qubits may be enough for the attack, and the operation on superconducting equipment will take about nine minutes - less than the average time of creation of the block in the Bitcoin network.
Another wake-up call is associated with the recent work of Caltech and Oratomic with the participation of John Preskill and Dolev Bluestev. The authors showed that the Shore algorithm can be launched on a cryptographically significant scale using about 10 000 reconfigured atomic qubits. Such estimates are on the orders of magnitude lower than the previous calculations of 2021.
Project Eleven emphasizes that blockchains are in a special risk zone. In classical systems, keys often change, and access can be withdrawn or restored. In the blockchains, addresses have been stored for years on the same public keys, and the compromise of the signature immediately gives control over the assets. There is usually no return mechanism in this model.
The authors of the report believe that the transition to post-quantum cryptography cannot be postponed. For decentralized networks, migration will take longer than for centralized services, as it will be necessary to agree on changes between developers, nodes, wallets, exchanges and users.
Project Eleven warns that waiting for “clear signs” of the Q-Day offensive may leave the industry too little time to choose, validate and implement new protection schemes.
Quantum computers have not yet become an everyday tool, but for the cryptocurrency market, their development already looks like a countdown timer. A new report from Project Eleven warns that the moment when such machines can open up today’s cryptography may come faster than many industry participants expected.
The authors of the report call such a system a cryptographically important quantum computer. The day of its appearance was called Q-Day. After this point, protection schemes on which blockchains, digital assets and other public key systems are held will be at risk.
According to Project Eleven, Q-Day is likely to occur by 2033, and with the acceleration of current trends - about 2030. It is not about a single breakthrough, but about the addition of several factors at once: the growth of quality and the number of physical qubits, progress in quantum error correction and reduction of requirements for resources due to new algorithmic approaches.
The report provides fresh examples of such acceleration. Google Willow Processor on 105 qubits showed an important result in the correction of quantum errors. Other work by Google Quantum AI and Stanford has reduced the estimate of the resources needed to crack down on elliptical cryptography that protects Bitcoin and a significant part of the digital asset ecosystem. According to the authors, about 1200 logic qubits may be enough for the attack, and the operation on superconducting equipment will take about nine minutes - less than the average time of creation of the block in the Bitcoin network.
Another wake-up call is associated with the recent work of Caltech and Oratomic with the participation of John Preskill and Dolev Bluestev. The authors showed that the Shore algorithm can be launched on a cryptographically significant scale using about 10 000 reconfigured atomic qubits. Such estimates are on the orders of magnitude lower than the previous calculations of 2021.
Project Eleven emphasizes that blockchains are in a special risk zone. In classical systems, keys often change, and access can be withdrawn or restored. In the blockchains, addresses have been stored for years on the same public keys, and the compromise of the signature immediately gives control over the assets. There is usually no return mechanism in this model.
The authors of the report believe that the transition to post-quantum cryptography cannot be postponed. For decentralized networks, migration will take longer than for centralized services, as it will be necessary to agree on changes between developers, nodes, wallets, exchanges and users.
Project Eleven warns that waiting for “clear signs” of the Q-Day offensive may leave the industry too little time to choose, validate and implement new protection schemes.
