Protos studied the statistics of forecasts of the founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange Arthur Hayes
What is Arthur Hayes known for and how reliable are his price forecasts for crypto assets. What long-term forecast for Bitcoin did the founder of a large crypto exchange make
16 out of 20 market forecasts of the founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange Arthur Hayes turned out to be incorrect. Two were accurate, two more concern future prices and cannot be verified yet. This is the conclusion reached by the Protos publication after analyzing 20 market forecasts of the former head of the previously largest derivatives exchange on the crypto market.
Arthur Hayes is one of the most controversial figures in the crypto market. He is known for his long essays on the place of cryptocurrencies in the global economy, as well as his bright forecasts. He is also the current CIO of cryptocurrency investment fund Maelstrom and the former CEO of BitMEX, the crypto exchange that pioneered Bitcoin perpetual futures.
What are crypto perpetual futures? Why are they so popular?
Hayes remains one of the most well-known voices in the crypto market. His X social media account has nearly 700,000 followers, and almost every post gets over 100,000 views. He has gained additional notoriety, in addition to founding BitMEX, for regularly publishing essays on the markets, which are often cited by crypto resources and discussed in the community.
Hayes' successful predictions include a Bitcoin rally in December 2023 amid expectations of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, as well as a short-term reversal in the Ethereum price in October of the same year after falling below $1,600.
His two more predictions remain open, one of them is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028. Hayes cited the US's inability to "rein in government spending" as one of the main reasons for this growth.
In October 2020, US authorities charged BitMEX and its founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, as well as the platform's CEO Gregory Dwyer, with violating the law: the exchange failed to implement the necessary anti-money laundering (AML) system, did not conduct customer verification (KYC procedure), and served US customers without registering with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). All four pleaded guilty, received suspended sentences, and agreed to pay fines.
They were all pardoned by US President Donald Trump in late March 2025. As Benjamin Delo noted, according to Coindesk, BitMEX, as the most successful in its segment, as well as its colleagues, were “victims for political reasons and used as an example” that US regulators wanted to show the rest of the crypto market.
Examples of Hayes' Predictions
Despite many erroneous predictions, Hayes himself admitted the failures of his assumptions. For example, in late September 2024, he analyzed his eight most recent predictions at that time, covering the period from 2023 to autumn 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be correct.
“That's pretty bad for the average person,” Hayes commented on his results.
Here are some of the recent predictions that did not come true.
On September 6, 2024, Hayes said that Bitcoin would "go below $50,000 this weekend" and announced a short position (on a price decrease). Then the price fell only to $52.5 thousand, and the coin began an upward movement - already in December, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $100 thousand for the first time.
In early January 2025, Hayes predicted the peak of the crypto market in March, but the maximum capitalization of the cryptocurrency market occurred on January 20 - the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. And by March, the capitalization of the crypto market was about 30% lower than the peak in January.
Already in March, the founder of BitMEX bet that Bitcoin would grow to $110 thousand before it touched $76.5 thousand again. But already in April, quotes fell below $75 thousand, and the predicted $110 thousand were never reached, according to Coinmarketcap on May 14.
Another failed growth forecast affected several tokens at once, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO and NEURON. In early January, in one of his latest essays, Hayes noted the prospects of these tokens - since the beginning of the year, they have all lost from 28 to 89% in price.
What is Arthur Hayes known for and how reliable are his price forecasts for crypto assets. What long-term forecast for Bitcoin did the founder of a large crypto exchange make
16 out of 20 market forecasts of the founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange Arthur Hayes turned out to be incorrect. Two were accurate, two more concern future prices and cannot be verified yet. This is the conclusion reached by the Protos publication after analyzing 20 market forecasts of the former head of the previously largest derivatives exchange on the crypto market.
Arthur Hayes is one of the most controversial figures in the crypto market. He is known for his long essays on the place of cryptocurrencies in the global economy, as well as his bright forecasts. He is also the current CIO of cryptocurrency investment fund Maelstrom and the former CEO of BitMEX, the crypto exchange that pioneered Bitcoin perpetual futures.
What are crypto perpetual futures? Why are they so popular?
Hayes remains one of the most well-known voices in the crypto market. His X social media account has nearly 700,000 followers, and almost every post gets over 100,000 views. He has gained additional notoriety, in addition to founding BitMEX, for regularly publishing essays on the markets, which are often cited by crypto resources and discussed in the community.
Hayes' successful predictions include a Bitcoin rally in December 2023 amid expectations of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, as well as a short-term reversal in the Ethereum price in October of the same year after falling below $1,600.
His two more predictions remain open, one of them is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028. Hayes cited the US's inability to "rein in government spending" as one of the main reasons for this growth.
In October 2020, US authorities charged BitMEX and its founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, as well as the platform's CEO Gregory Dwyer, with violating the law: the exchange failed to implement the necessary anti-money laundering (AML) system, did not conduct customer verification (KYC procedure), and served US customers without registering with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). All four pleaded guilty, received suspended sentences, and agreed to pay fines.
They were all pardoned by US President Donald Trump in late March 2025. As Benjamin Delo noted, according to Coindesk, BitMEX, as the most successful in its segment, as well as its colleagues, were “victims for political reasons and used as an example” that US regulators wanted to show the rest of the crypto market.
Examples of Hayes' Predictions
Despite many erroneous predictions, Hayes himself admitted the failures of his assumptions. For example, in late September 2024, he analyzed his eight most recent predictions at that time, covering the period from 2023 to autumn 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be correct.
“That's pretty bad for the average person,” Hayes commented on his results.
Here are some of the recent predictions that did not come true.
On September 6, 2024, Hayes said that Bitcoin would "go below $50,000 this weekend" and announced a short position (on a price decrease). Then the price fell only to $52.5 thousand, and the coin began an upward movement - already in December, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $100 thousand for the first time.
In early January 2025, Hayes predicted the peak of the crypto market in March, but the maximum capitalization of the cryptocurrency market occurred on January 20 - the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. And by March, the capitalization of the crypto market was about 30% lower than the peak in January.
Already in March, the founder of BitMEX bet that Bitcoin would grow to $110 thousand before it touched $76.5 thousand again. But already in April, quotes fell below $75 thousand, and the predicted $110 thousand were never reached, according to Coinmarketcap on May 14.
Another failed growth forecast affected several tokens at once, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO and NEURON. In early January, in one of his latest essays, Hayes noted the prospects of these tokens - since the beginning of the year, they have all lost from 28 to 89% in price.
